Tens of thousands of people were evacuated from the surrounding settlements. Officials fear the floods will have catastrophic consequences.
A large dam in an area controlled by the Russian military in southern Ukraine has been destroyed. The consequence is an extensive flood.
Ukraine’s military and NATO have accused Russia of blowing up the dam, while Moscow blames Kiev.
However, echoes of last year’s inexplicable explosions at the North Stream gas pipeline are also heard.
In both cases, the West immediately suspected Russia.
But Moscow answered both times: “We are not. Why would we do this? It harms us.”
Russia can point out that there are at least two ways that harm their own interests.
Flooding of land downstream of the dam forced them to evacuate troops. Also, civilians to the east, away from Kherson and the banks of the wide Dnieper River.
This will provide respite for the residents of Kherson, who had to live under daily Russian artillery and rocket attacks.
It could affect the water supply of Russian-occupied Crimea. The arid peninsula relies on fresh water from a canal close to the breached dam.
Since being annexed by Russia in 2014, Crimea has become a heavily fortified piece of land that both Moscow and Kiev claim as their territory.
But the breaching of the Kakhovka Dam should be seen in the wider context of the war in Ukraine. That light is Ukraine’s summer counter-offensive, which there are indications is already underway.
Kiev needs to break the Russian ring around a part of the territory it seized last year, which connects Crimea with the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine can split Russian territory south of Zaporozhye and isolate Crimea.
The Russians have learned many lessons since the invasion began last February.
They looked at the map and determined where Ukraine was most likely to attack. They have spent the last few months building powerful lines of fortifications to block any Ukrainian advance towards the Sea of Azov.
It cannot be said that Ukraine planned to send its own forces to the western side of that defense.
The high command in Kiev is sensibly keeping its trump cards to itself to keep Russia guessing.
But this action, whoever did it, now makes that option far more problematic.
Moving an armored brigade across the Dnieper River under Russian artillery and missile fire and drone attack would be extremely dangerous.
The dam across the river has now been breached, and vast swaths of land downstream are flooded. The area on the left (east) bank opposite Kherson has effectively become a no-go zone for Ukrainian armored units.
A historical footnote says that Russia has experience of warfare in this area.
In 1941, Soviet units blew up a dam across the same Dnieper River to block the advance of Nazi troops.
Thousands of Soviet citizens perished in the floods that followed.
The bottom line is that whoever breached the Kakhovka Dam this week disrupted the strategic chessboard in southern Ukraine. Both sides were forced to make a series of major adjustments. It is likely to delay Kiev’s next move in a long-promised counter-offensive.
The Kakhovka hydropower plant is in the city of Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson region of Ukraine, which is currently under Russian occupation.
It was built during the Soviet Union and is one of the six dams on the Dnieper River. The course of the river stretches from the extreme north of Ukraine to the very south of the country, where it flows into the sea.
This dam is large, and the local population even has the term Kakhovka sea because, from certain places, you cannot see the other side of the coast.
The dam holds the same amount of water as the Great Salt Lake in the US state of Utah.
It is not clear when the dam was first damaged. Satellite images show that the situation worsened gradually in the previous days.
The road over the dam appears to have been damaged since June 2nd. There was no change in the flow of water until June 6, when the video clearly shows the breaching of the wall and the collapse of nearby buildings.
It is currently unclear if the road damage is related to the June 6 breach.
Although it is not clear how extensive the floods will be, there are fears that they could have a devastating impact on settlements in the critical zone. About 16,000 people live in that zone.
Pictures from Nova Kahova show buildings surrounded by flood waters. Chai and swans swimming around the local government building.
Authorities in Kherson, less than 80 kilometers downstream, warned residents in lower-lying areas of the city to evacuate as soon as possible and seek shelter on higher ground.
Alexander Prokudin, head of the Kherson region, told Ukrainian television that eight villages have already been completely flooded. It is expected that there will be even more under water.
UkrHydroEnerho, the Ukrainian operator of hydroelectric dams, said the station was destroyed and could not be rebuilt.
It is not yet clear what caused the damage to the dam. The Ukrainian military accused Russia of deliberately blowing it up.
Moscow may have feared that Ukrainian forces would use the road over the dam to move troops into Russian-held territory as part of a counteroffensive.
Russian officials blamed Ukraine for the attack. They say that shelling destroyed only the upper part of the plant, not the dam itself.
The BBC could not independently confirm either the Ukrainian or Russian claims.
The dam is very important and has multiple purposes.
It keeps a vast reservoir that supplies water too many communities upstream.
Farmers upstream of Kakhovka rely on water for growing crops. This could affect tens of thousands of people.
The dam also provides cooling water to the nuclear power plant in Zaporozhye, about 100 miles upstream. It is under Russian control.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said there was no immediate risk to nuclear safety.
One of those sources is the cooling pond next to the plant.
The dam is a vital channel for transporting water from the Dnieper to Russian-occupied Crimea. There will probably be a problem in the water supply of the territory there.
After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine blocked the canal that diverts water from Nova Kakhovka, causing a water crisis on the peninsula.
Russian forces reopened the canal shortly after the start of last year’s invasion of Ukraine.
But without the dam, falling water levels could once again threaten its flow along the canal.
Russia has previously carried out several attacks on dams across Ukraine. This caused major flooding and disrupted the power supply.
